Low cat losses fuelled strong results for U.S. P&C insurers in 2025: Verisk & APCIA  March 26th 2026

Hurricane season could be quieter this year

The United States could see another relatively quiet Atlantic hurricane season this year, according to a new report from AccuWeather.

Forecasters are predicting four to seven hurricanes this year, near or slightly below the 30-year historical average of seven. But the United States is still forecast to see around three to five direct impacts, close to the historical annual average of four.

"It's very important that everybody from South Texas all the way to Maine prepares equally for each and every hurricane season, regardless of the forecast," said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, in a statement. "Even if it's expected to be a slightly below average hurricane season, we can still see major hits across the United States."

The central and eastern Gulf Coast as well as the Carolinas and parts of the Virginia coastline could see above-average activity this year, while central and southern Texas could see fewer tropical impacts.

An El Niño climate pattern is expected to develop sometime this summer, which could increase winds but reduce storm activity. AccuWeather forecasters say there is a 15% chance of a Super El Niño developing in the second half of the hurricane season, which would further reduce activity.

El Niño years typically produce about 10 named storms and five hurricanes, compared to 15 storms and eight hurricanes during La Niña years. Neutral seasons typically see about 13 named storms and seven hurricanes.

AAA Warns of Destructive Tornadoes, Hail, Flooding, and Severe Thunderstorms

Spring storms are back, and underestimating them can be costly. AAA is partnering with the Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety to help residents prepare.

Spring weather patterns fuel fast‑developing storms capable of causing severe damage with little warning.

• Tornadoes can rip roofs from homes, collapse walls, and turn debris into high-speed projectiles that shatter windows and damage vehicles. Even weaker tornadoes can leave homes unstable and cause costly structural repairs.
• Severe thunderstorms produce destructive wind gusts that tear off shingles, break tree limbs, and damage siding, while lightning can spark house fires or destroy electrical systems. Heavy rainfall often leads to roof leaks and interior water damage.
• Large hail can punch holes through roofing materials, break windows and skylights, and heavily dent or total vehicles. Repeated impacts weaken roofs and increase the risk of leaks and long-term structural deterioration.
• Flash flooding can overwhelm foundations, enter crawlspaces and living areas, and destroy flooring, drywall, appliances, and electrical components. Once water recedes, lingering mold and structural damage can drive repair costs even higher.
• Straight line winds can uproot trees, peel off roof coverings, and lift unsecured structures like sheds and patios. Flying debris can break windows, damage siding, and compromise garage doors, leading to further interior damage.

“By the time many people realize how severe a storm is, the damage may already be done,” said Jeff Jones, AVP of Claims for AAA-The Auto Club Group. “Our claims teams see it every year, from roofs torn apart by wind to vehicles destroyed by hail. Preparing early and staying alert can reduce the damage when severe weather hits.”

Why Insurers Must Own Their View of Risk. And How to Build It

As climate effects and non-peak perils challenge traditional diversification strategies, property insurers need a comprehensive approach to accumulation risk that goes far beyond standard modeling.

The assumption that building a geographically diverse portfolio would protect insurers from catastrophic losses has been tested repeatedly in recent years. From Winter Storm Fern to the devastating 2017 hurricane season, events have demonstrated that accumulation risk can emerge from unexpected directions, turning what was once considered a diversified book of business into a concentrated exposure.

“Losses are no longer isolated to peak zone events, like a Florida hurricane,” said Michael Quigley, Head of Property Underwriting & Multiline Risk Quantification at Munich Re US. “Climate effects, urban concentration growth, and non-peak perils all mean that single-event losses can generate large correlated losses across regions and segments of an insurer’s business, turning accumulation into a true capital and earnings risk — not just a modeling issue.”

For insurers, understanding and managing this risk has become essential to long-term resilience and sustainability. WHITE PAPER

JBA launches enhanced global flood model featuring improved exposure disaggregation

Flood specialist JBA Risk Management has launched an enhanced version of its Global Flood Model, which introduces a variety of key features, such as enhanced hazard maps, a wide range of future climate event sets, and improvements to both processing speed and exposure disaggregation.

As per the firm, these developments will enable reinsurers, insurers, brokers, risk managers and asset managers to obtain a clearer understanding of both present and evolving exposure to flood risk, and to undertake transparent, fully auditable stress testing with greater confidence.

JBA Risk Management’s new global flood model includes updated maps for 17 key countries (Hungary, Japan, China, Thailand, India, Vietnam, Poland, Slovakia, Colombia, Brazil, Peru, Chile, Canada, Mexico, Bermuda, South Korea, South Africa), incorporating newly available bare earth Digital Terrain Model data, as well as refreshed hydrology aligned with JBA’s latest global methodology, updated land use information, and improved classification of river and surface water flood types.

The model also contains enhanced and expanded future climate event sets, which includes eight CMIP6‑based climate event sets, with a new 2080 timeline and two hours clauses, which ultimately helps to provide better flexibility for exploring how flood risk may evolve.

2026 Cotality Severe Convective Storm Risk Report

Cotality’s 2026 Severe Convective Storm Report highlights the changing SCS landscape and help homes and communities recover as quickly as possible. | CotalityImagine two hypothetical Oklahoma homeowners: Mark and Sarah.

Mark and Sarah have maintained their property and paid their insurance premiums for the decade since they bought their home. They thought they were prepared to weather any storm, but when a severe weather event pelted their roof with 3-inch hail, that sense of security vanished. Because field representatives were spread thin across the storm-impacted area, Mark and Sarah’s recovery stalled.

A three-week delay in claims adjustment followed—but the weather didn’t wait. During that time, it rained three times, causing a roof leak that evolved into a total-loss mold infestation. What should have been a $20,000 roof repair spiraled into a $120,000 full-gut renovation, displacing their family for six months and exhausting their coverage.

To make matters worse, when it came time to renew their policy, Mark and Sarah learned that their premiums, along with those of their neighbors, were rising.

This fictional scenario is based on a costly reality many homeowners have experienced. As severe convective storm (SCS) events—such as hail, tornadoes, and straight-line winds—become the primary drivers of annual insured losses, a family’s ability to return home depends on a high-stakes professional relay.

Resilience is no longer just a matter of individual preparation; it is a multi-stage defense where the success of each phase, from accurate risk pricing to physical restoration, is vital.

The 2026 Severe Convective Storm Risk Report is here—and it reveals a fast-evolving threat to property portfolios and market stability.

See why a 20-mile difference in a storm’s path is now a $19 billion variable for insurers and restoration professionals alike.