Commentary/Opinion
When History Is No Longer Reliable
Today we want to share a brief but important thought for your consideration.
Winston Churchill famously said "Those that fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it". But what if history suddenly becomes unreliable?
No doubt you have noticed that since the pandemic arrived in March 2020, not much has been the same as it was before, whether it be extreme weather events, the economy, behavior of the stock market, work patterns and locations, political discourse, driving, traffic patterns or personal habits such as dining and entertainment, parenting demands and a lot more.
This past week, as hundreds of new all time daily temperature records were set and headlines were dominated by reports of deadly tornadoes, unhealthy smoke-filled air quality and flooding around the world, something about all of these events became clear and made us think about it in the context of the insurance industry. Beyond just the economic implications for catastrophic claims and losses, something even more concerning came into focus.
The underlying assumption for virtually almost all insurance products - Personal, Commercial, Life, Health and Accident - is that studying the history of claims frequency, severity and outcomes along with other data inputs, enables underwriters and data scientists to price these products in a reliably fair and profitable way.
But what happens when retrospective (historical) data is no longer reliable for these purposes? What happens when "Black Swan" events emerge ever more frequently?
We don't have the answer but do think the industry should be focused on this.
Technologies that enable claim avoidance may be part of the answer but solutions and adoption are still embryonic. Connected IoT sensor and parametric insurance programs may address some of the issues. AI and predictive analytics can also help but a dependency on historical data may limit their effectiveness.
We look forward to remaining focused on this issue and to reporting and sharing what we learn. Please feel free to do the same.
News
Dangerous heatwaves strike globe as wildfires rage
Scorching weather gripped three continents on Sunday, whipping up wildfires and threatening to topple temperature records as the dire consequences of global warming take shape.
Predictions of historic heat hung over swathes of Asia, Europe and the United States.
The US National Weather Service warned a "widespread and oppressive" heatwave in southern and western states was expected to peak, with more than 80 million people affected by excessive heat warnings or heat advisories on Sunday.
California's Death Valley, often among the hottest places on Earth, is also likely to register new peaks on Sunday, with the mercury possibly surpassing 54C.
Southern California is fighting numerous wildfires, including one in Riverside County that has burned more than 7,500 acres (3,000 hectares) and prompted evacuation orders.
Severe Weather Causes First-Half 2023 Losses of at Least $1B in Seven States: Report
Seven states experienced at least $1 billion in total insured severe weather loss for the first half of 2023, according to an update from BMS Group.
Texas led all states with insured severe weather loss of $7.2 billion while Illinois, Kentucky, Colorado, Tennessee, Arkansas and Missouri also broke the $1 billion mark.
While London-based independent specialist insurance and reinsurance broker BMS credited socioeconomic elements as the primary driver of higher insurance losses from severe weather, states in the Central Plains experienced unusually active storms in the first six months of the year.
Texas recorded five severe weather industry insurance loss events in June, the most in that month in at least 13 years. June severe weather in Texas led to an estimated $2 billion in total insured losses, according to the report.
Using data from NOAA National Weather Service Local Storm Reports, BMS found that wind damage reports have been elevated for most of 2023, with a leveling off in June. The U.S. experienced a near-record number of tornadoes through the first three months of the year. A tornado outbreak March 31-April 1 left at least 32 people dead across nine states and caused significant damage throughout the Midwest and South.
P/C Market Won’t See Underwriting Profit Until 2024: S&P
After four years of unparalleled underwriting profitability ending in 2021, the property/casualty market is headed for a second straight year of underwriting losses, according to the newly released S&P Global Market Intelligence report.
S&P’s “2023 U.S. P&C Insurance Market Report” estimates a combined ratio of 100.8 for 2023. Though an improvement from the calendar-year 2022 result of 102.6, it’s still above the 100 profitability threshold, the report said.
“Dismal first-quarter 2023 direct incurred loss ratios in the homeowners and private auto business suggests a repeat of 2022, when highly favorable underwriting results in the commercial lines were more than offset by the personal lines losses,” explained Tim Zawacki, principal research analyst, S&P Global Market Intelligence (S&P GMI).
“We project a narrower, but still significant, gap between personal and commercial lines results will remain in 2023 as we anticipate that benefits from multiple rounds of private auto rate increases will lead to improvement in loss ratios for that embattled business line,” he said.
Fast Fact: Personal vs. Commercial
According to S&P GMI’s U.S. P/C Insurance Market Report, in 2022, there was a 15.5 point gap between a personal lines combined ratio of 109.9 and a commercial lines combined ratio of 94.4. The last time there was a double-digit gap between personal and commercial lines combined ratios was in 2001, when commercial hit 121.8 and personal came in at 110.9, S&P said.
S&P GMI projects “outsized growth” in personal lines direct premiums written of 12.7% and 8.5% in both 2023 and 2024, with personal lines combined ratios improving to 105.3 in 2023 and 101.4 in 2024, both down from 109.9 in 2022. The 2023 personal lines growth figure encompasses what S&P GMI believes will be the highest annual jump in private auto direct premiums in at least 25 years—and potentially back to the late 1970s or early 80s, the report noted.
Higher Reserving Uncertainties Could Sustain Hard Market Conditions: Report
Systemic shocks related to the recent pandemic, the war in Ukraine, natural catastrophe losses and elevated inflation have raised questions about reserve adequacy for property/casualty insurers, according to a Swiss Re report.
These recent shocks have pushed up claims and added to reserving uncertainties, which may lead insurers to reduce their risk appetite, new business capacity and require more premium to cover— factors that could extend or exacerbate the current hard market, said the Economic Insights report titled “Reserving: higher uncertainty puts adequacy in the spotlight.”
As a result of these uncertainties, direct insurance reserve releases in advanced markets are slowing after a decade of favorable progress, the report said, noting that insurers in response have increased the share of incurred-but-not-reported (IBNR) claims.
Is working for property casualty insurers a good career path?
Whether or not working with property-casualty insurers is a good career path depends on a range of factors. Find out if you got what it takes
Property-casualty insurers play a crucial part in helping individuals and businesses protect their hard-earned investments such as their homes, vehicles, and certain commercial assets. If you find this role intriguing, then you may be wondering, “Is property-casualty insurers a good career path for me?”
To help you in your decision, Insurance Business will walk you through the advantages and disadvantages of working under the property and casualty insurance line. This guide will also give you a rundown of the different career options you can pursue and what it takes to be successful. Read on and find out if working for property-casualty insurers is a good career path for you.
But first, what is property and casualty insurance?
Property and casualty insurance provides coverage for the things that individuals and businesses own. It consists of two parts that are often bundled into a single policy.
These are:
- Property insurance: Covers personal belongings including cars, homes, and commercial equipment Casualty insurance: Pays out for expenses incurred if a person or business is found liable for damages to another person or their possessions
- Property and casualty insurance, also called P&C insurance, comes in a range of specialties
OCTO Crash & Claims: Video Damage Evaluation opens up a new era of claim management
OCTO Crash & Claims solution marks a shift in the traditional way of managing crash and claim processes, moving towards a digital and innovative approach that integrates cutting-edge technologies and tools.
The solution has been developed with the goal of reducing claim processing times, mitigating insurance fraud, and optimizing the entire settlement process, while reducing overall costs. This represents a significant turning point in claims management and builds upon OCTO's expertise - gained over 20 years of innovation in telematics - in data analysis to identify, reconstruct and validate claims.
Artificial Intelligence plays a crucial role in accurately reconstructing a crash scene.
OCTO's technology is capable of automatically detecting crashes through onboard sensors and validating all related data using AI algorithms that are programmed to self-learn. These algorithms are continuously fed with new data from OCTO's real-time crash database, enhancing the accuracy of the crash analysis.
The interaction between the device installed in a vehicle and the OCTO platform enables the accurate detection and validation of car accidents, providing insurance companies with deep insights to understand crash dynamics. This transparent and efficient claims management process can lead to an overall improvement of 26% in claims management.
Aon Completes "Historic" Parametric Insurance Programme for Puerto Rico
The objective of this initiative is to help the island reduce its insurance obligation to the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) by providing diversified insurance protection against hurricane and earthquake perils.
The programme, which represents the largest government-sponsored parametric transaction for Puerto Rico, not only strengthens the island’s response to catastrophic events but also marks the first use of a parametric insurance protection mechanism to reduce FEMA’s Obtain & Maintain (O&M) requirement.
By implementing an onshore and offshore parametric program, Puerto Rico gains access to quick liquidity to support its recovery and reconstruction efforts.
The collaboration between Aon and the Government of Puerto Rico demonstrates a proactive approach to address the protection gap and find capital solutions.
Led by Paul Schultz, Chairman and CEO of Aon Securities, a cross-functional team consisting of subject matter experts, professionals from diverse geographical locations, product teams, and analytics specialists worked together to design and deliver an optimized parametric solution tailored to the government’s needs.
Unlike traditional insurance coverage, the parametric program does not require proof of loss to initiate a payout. Instead, payouts are automatically triggered when a major hurricane or earthquake exceeds a predefined threshold, allowing for faster access to critical funds.
InsurTech/M&A/Finance💰/Collaboration
Tokio Marine Launches Group-Wide Intelligence Platform for Enhanced Collaboration
The platform, introduced in June, enables seamless sharing of information within the group, including updates on search and scouting for potential business partners and meeting minutes.
Its primary goal is to enhance efficiency and streamline the process of identifying and partnering with startup companies, particularly in the rapidly growing insurtech sector.
Recognizing the global growth and transformative potential of insurtech, Tokio Marine is actively seeking collaborations with insurtech companies to drive innovation and develop new insurance products. However, the absence of a centralised information sharing system had previously resulted in duplication and inefficiencies, with different group companies unknowingly engaging with the same startups.
To overcome this challenge, Tokio Marine collaborated with Tällt Ventures to co-develop the platform, leveraging their Sønr Platform, which houses a database of over two million companies with technologies relevant to the insurance industry. The platform enables seamless information sharing among group companies, ensuring a more coordinated approach to identifying potential business partners.
Apart from information sharing, the platform offers features for effective information management. Users have the ability to assign attributes and tags to external companies, facilitating organization and categorization. Additionally, each user can customize their home screen to display relevant information, enhancing usability and convenience.
Cover Genius Partners with AudienceView as Live Entertainment Sales Soar by 251% in 12 months
Insurtech experiences 251% increase in live entertainment sales in 12 months as more event venues and ticketing platforms add refund protection to their online experience
Cover Genius, the insurtech for embedded protection, has partnered with AudienceView, a global leader in ticketing and e-commerce solutions for the live entertainment industry, to offer embedded Refund Protection to thousands of venues and event businesses worldwide. This partnership follows a period of significant growth for the insurtech as it has seen a 251% increase in global live entertainment sales since June 2022.
Cover Genius is the chosen Refund Protection partner for some of the world’s largest ticketing platforms, events, venues and resellers including, AXS, FreshTix, Tessitura, SeatGeek, Outbox, Spektrix and more.
Its award-winning distribution platform, XCover, offers a number of unique capabilities including AI-backed optimised pricing in real-time and insurance and non-insurance solutions that are adapted for different markets. With Audienceview, Cover Genius is the merchant of record for venues that don’t take payment upfront, and is the licensed or authorised agent where needed.
“Data shows that adding protection within the checkout experience increases purchase conversion rates by 8%‡,” said Angus McDonald, CEO and Co-founder of Cover Genius (pictured). “This increase in core conversion, or what’s called the “Protection Effect”, drives the conversion rate for AudienceView’s venue partners, leading to more ticket sales and increased loyalty.”
AI in Insurance
The evolving role of underwriters in the age of AI
Expert shares insights on embracing new technologies
Artificial intelligence is a topic of great interest and speculation in various industries, and the insurance sector is no exception. Michael Wighton, account executive - client solutions, at RAISE Underwriting, recently weighed in on the topic, sharing his insights of how underwriters can better adapt to new technological advancement shappening in insurance.
During an interview with IBTV, Wighton acknowledged the importance of embracing new technologies as they become available and are proven to be practical.
“The insurance industry, the underwriting business has existed for a long, long time and predates many different types of technologies,” he said. “I think adapting to new existing technologies is critical.”
Events
Connected Claims USA 2023 | Austin, TX | September 26-27, 2023 | Reuters Events Insurance
The World's Largest Claims Event is Coming to Austin, TX in just over 2 months' time!
The countdown to Connected Claims USA is on! September 26-27 is right around the corner, and we don't want you to miss this amazing opportunity to learn, interact with peers, and grow your network.
Join 700+ senior claims leaders from North America's major carriers to discover all things claims, from applying AI to develop the competitive edge, to tackling social inflation and nuclear verdicts.
Join us and the claims community at #CCUSA!
Download full event details to learn more and register here now.
People
Farmers names Kevin Yoo Chief Claims Officer
Farmers Insurance announced that Kevin Yoo will join the organization as chief claims officer effective July 12.
Yoo has an extensive insurance background, having served in senior claims roles at CSAA, Chubb, Allstate and Progressive throughout the last 20 years. His most recent role was at Five Sigma, a startup claims technology company, where he served as chief operating officer. In that position, he oversaw operational aspects of the business, including client marketing and sales, investor relations, technology development and client deployment.
Yoo succeeds Rob Howard, who will retire in October. Howard has served as Farmers’ chief claims officer since 2018. He joined Farmers in 1987 and has held numerous senior leadership roles including head of Property Field Claims and head of Claims Shared Services prior to his current role.