Research
Chief Economists Warn Global Growth Under Strain from Trade Policy Shocks and AI Disruption > Press releases | World Economic Forum
A majority of surveyed economists see current US economic policy as having a lasting global impact, with 87% expecting it to delay strategic business decisions and heighten recession risks.
The growth outlook is divided, with weak prospects in North America, resilience in Asia-Pacific and cautious optimism in Europe.
Public debt concerns are mounting as defence spending rises, with 86% of chief economists expecting increased government borrowing.
Artificial intelligence is expected to drive growth, but 47% anticipate net job losses.
Economic and financial risk insights: ongoing tariff negotiations precede a global growth slowdown later this year | Swiss Re
Key takeaways
- Growth: US growth slowdown likely, prompting downward revisions to growth across regions.
- Inflation: Tariffs will drive US inflation higher than in Europe and China, both insulated by strong currency appreciation.
- Interest rates: The Fed will remain patient before two cuts later this year; the ECB will cut at least twice and possibly more to protect against downside growth risks.
Please watch macro outlook May 2025, by Hendre Garbers, Senior Economist
Growth
Momentum slowing sharply. In our updated US forecast, we now expect just 1.5% GDP growth in 2025 following a trade-distorted -0.3% Q1contraction (see Figure 1) and further consumption moderation in H225.
The 90-day de-escalation in tariff rates between the US and China are encouraging, with volatile shipping volumes now rebounding in May after a weak April (Figure 2). Negotiations are currently ongoing, and future sectoral measures will leave the effective tariff rate at 15% under our baseline. Frontloading ahead of the global tariff shock was a tailwind to euro area growth. Exports (particularly from Ireland) supported a stronger-than-expected Q1 growth rate.
Whilst trade negotiations will be key for the European outlook, we expect policy uncertainty to predominantly weigh on economic activity and now forecast GDP growth lower at 0.8% this year. Our updated outlook for China also includes a marginal tariff-induced headwind this year, leaving our GDP growth forecast at 4.7%.
I
Insurity: 1 in 5 consumers avoid filing insurance claim due to frustration with digital interaction
Twenty-two percent or one in five consumers have avoided filing an insurance claim because they found the digital interactions too frustrating or complicated, according to a 2025 Digital Experience Index national survey conducted by Insurity.
The survey also found 64% of consumers would consider switching insurers for a better digital experience, a press release on the survey results says. It says the results reveal how poor interactions during the claims process can drive customers to competitors.
“As insurers continue to advance their digital strategies in 2025 and beyond, prioritizing intuitive, user-centric digital experiences will strengthen retention and build long-term customer loyalty,” the release says.
Commentary/Opinion
Driving change: How America's auto insurance giants are rerouting for the future
As inflation, rising repair costs, and evolving motorist behavior redraw the map of US personal auto insurance, the country’s largest insurers are shifting gears. In a $365 billion market undergoing convulsion, State Farm, Progressive, GEICO (Berkshire Hathaway), Allstate, and USAA are executing sharply divergent strategies as some bet on scale, others on discipline, and a few on reinvention.
Insurance Business’ latest Competitor Analysis – Private Passenger Auto Insurance offers a rare and behind-the-headlines view of how these five behemoths are navigating the post-pandemic auto insurance landscape, one defined by margin compression, loss volatility, and digital acceleration.
The report dissects the real-time consequences of strategy, structure, and speed by drawing on insights from leading market analysts, including Catherine Seifert, director of research at the Center for Financial Research and Analysis and a former lead analyst at S&P Global Ratings; Tim Zawacki, principal research analyst for insurance at S&P Global Market Intelligence; Karl Susman, a veteran independent insurance broker and longtime industry commentator; and Christopher Grimes, North American Head of US Mortgage, Title and Financial Guarantee Insurance at Fitch Ratings.
“There’s a pretty wide dichotomy in how insurers have chosen to manage through this (auto insurance) cycle,” Zawacki begins in the Competitor Analysis.
News
Alabama study reveals hurricane resilience programs are paying off for homeowners and insurers | AP News
A new Alabama study of hurricane-affected homes sends a clear message to insurers and homeowners nationwide: climate-resilient construction methods can protect homes, and save a lot of money.
The first-of-its-kind analysis, released this week, reviews thousands of insurance claims linked to Hurricane Sally, which struck Alabama’s coast in 2020 with wind speeds up to 105 miles per hour. Homes retrofitted or built to Fortified standards, a voluntary construction code created by the nonprofit Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety (IBHS) for wind and rain mitigation saw significantly fewer and less costly claims.
If every impacted house in Mobile and Baldwin counties had met Fortified standards, insurance companies could have spent 75% less in payouts, saving up to $112 million, and policyholders could have paid up to 65% less in deductibles, saving almost $35 million, according to the study.
The results show “mitigation works and that we can build things that are resilient to climate change,” said Dr. Lars Powell, director of the Center for Risk and Insurance Research at the University of Alabama’s Culverhouse College of Business, which led the study with the Alabama Department of Insurance.
IBHS created Fortified to strengthen buildings against storm damage based on decades of research at its facility, where it uses a giant wind tunnel to pummel model houses with rain, hail, and wind up to 130 miles per hour.
Insurance Commissioners Drive Consumer Protection Strategies Forward, Learning from Recent Natural Disasters
Last week, state insurance regulators from across the country representing 12 states met in California, united by a shared commitment to strengthening consumer protection efforts against natural disaster risks.
Several NAIC Members were featured at the Global Sustainable Insurance Summit, in Long Beach, CA, as part of the national effort to drive forward common-sense policies that protect consumers and speed recovery from wildfires, heat waves, and flooding.
Earlier this year, the NAIC highlighted catastrophe resiliency efforts as part of its 2025 key initiatives, which include advancing the NAIC National Resilience Strategy that state insurance regulators adopted last year.
“State insurance commissioners are on the front lines when disasters strike, ensuring claims are paid fairly and quickly while also protecting our communities from fraud,” said California Insurance Commissioner and Task Force Co-Chair Ricardo Lara, whose department co-hosted the Global Sustainable Insurance Summit. “We have a responsibility to help communities prepare better and recover faster during disasters by sharing our real-time insights with other states.”
As part of these efforts, the NAIC will create a Disaster Preparedness Guide to provide a comprehensive resource designed to enhance the capabilities of state insurance regulators. Driven by members of the NAIC Climate and Resiliency (EX) Task Force and Catastrophe Insurance (C) Working Group, this guide will serve as a practical and strategic resource for regulators nationwide, covering topics such as climate adaptation, social and financial inclusion, economic and community resilience, risk mitigation, and closing protection gaps. The guide will solidify best practices for disaster recovery, including in-person consumer assistance and forward-looking regulations and laws.
US personal lines market returns to profit in 2024 amid improved conditions: Fitch
Fitch Ratings, a global credit ratings agency and financial information provider, reports that the US personal lines insurance market returned to underwriting profitability in 2024 after three consecutive years of losses.
Fitch reports that the sector’s statutory combined ratio dropped from 107% in 2023 to 97% in 2024, marking a 10-point improvement.
The company highlights that personal lines insurance is the largest component of the US property and casualty (P/C) insurance sector, comprising more than 54% of the industry’s net written premiums in 2024.
Of this, personal auto insurance represents the largest share at 38%, followed by homeowners insurance at 16%.
The strong overall growth of personal lines premiums—13% in 2024, slightly down from 14% the year before—was largely the result of continued aggressive rate adjustments as insurers sought to offset prior underwriting challenges.
InsurTech/M&A/Finance💰/Collaboration
Exclusive: Empathy raises $72 million Series C to tackle the agonizing logistics of death | Fortune
Ron Gura doesn’t use the word “death” every day.
“From a chemistry perspective, we tune out when we hear the word death, because death is our biggest denial. Nobody wants to contemplate their own self-mortality,” says Gura, a longtime entrepreneur who sold his previous company The Gifts Project to eBay.
And yet Gura’s latest startup is inextricably entwined with the dreaded D-word and the subject most people would rather not talk about. The common fear of mortality (“Nobody wants to admit that we’re just ants playing around with fear and greed—yielding stuff, selling stuff, buying stuff, and ending up leaving, just like the others,” Gura tells me in a philosophical moment) is in fact one of the reasons Gura’s startup, Empathy, may be so necessary.
Empathy is all about using technology to make it easier for people to deal with the most difficult moments in life, such as the death of a loved one. While there are plenty of people and services to soothe the emotional difficulties of the moment, Empathy focuses on the logistical headaches.
As anyone who has had to face the loss of a loved one can attest, death brings with it a ferocious maze of estate planning, probate processes, funeral expenses, and financial settlements—all suddenly dumped into the laps of grief-stricken and frequently unprepared family or friends.
It’s a durational agony: It takes the average person 15 months to tie off the various loose ends and logistical tasks of a deceased loved one’s affairs, according to research conducted by Empathy and presented in a report bearing the coldly analytical title Cost of Dying. If the person handling the tasks is the executor of the estate, the number becomes 18 months, the report says.
“Our job is to make loss less hard for more people every day,” said Gura, who cofounded the company and serves as CEO. “We think it’s the largest consumer sector that is still untouched by innovation, specifically in software.”
Synchrony and Jewelers Mutual® Collaborate on Innovative New Sponsorship Agreement, Combining Finance and Insurance Marketing Efforts
Synchrony (NYSE: SYF), a premier consumer financial services company, and Jewelers Mutual®, an insurer dedicated to protecting jewelry and jewelry businesses for over a century, today announced a new sponsorship agreement to co-market both services to jewelry merchants looking to make customers aware of both financing and insurance coverage options.
Synchrony and Jewelers Mutual have entered into a new sponsorship agreement to co-market both services to jewelry merchants looking to make customers aware of both financing and insurance coverage options.
Synchrony and Jewelers Mutual have entered into a new sponsorship agreement to co-market both services to jewelry merchants looking to make customers aware of both financing and insurance coverage options.
"Through this new sponsorship agreement with Jewelers Mutual, we are extending the value Synchrony brings to retailers around the country," said Darrell Owens, CEO, Lifestyle, Synchrony. "Jewelry merchants can now present their customers with financing options that make purchases more affordable, while making their customers aware of the option to protect their jewelry, which is often among a customer's most cherished possessions."
As part of the agreement, Jewelers Mutual will showcase Synchrony financing solutions in its marketing materials as well as Zing® Marketplace, a comprehensive online platform created for its member retailers. Zing Marketplace features essential tools to help merchants best serve their customers, including jeweler web pages, diamond marketplace, a jewelry appraisal solution and, now, financing offerings from Synchrony.
Announcements
CCC Partners with BMW to Help Drivers Connect with Certified Collision Repair Facilities and Take the First Step Toward Repair - CollisionWeek
CCC digital and AI solutions to support drivers after a collision as the number of promotionally priced OEM parts available to repairers triples.
CCC Intelligent Solutions Inc. (CCC) today announced that it was selected by BMW of North America to help enhance the post-collision experience for its drivers. By integrating CCC technology into its customer-facing digital experience, BMW now makes it easier for drivers in the U.S. to find and connect with certified collision repair centers, request photo estimates and gain early insight into repair costs. At the same time, the number of BMW certified parts available to repairers has been significantly expanded through CCC Parts, helping shops access competitively priced original BMW components.
To help more drivers connect with BMW-certified repairers, CCC’s technology has been integrated into BMW’s Certified Shop Locator to enhance its functionality. Through CCC OEM Net Refer, BMW Certified Collision Repair Centers (CCRCs) with CCC Engage can now offer drivers the ability to request a photo estimate or book an appointment directly through the locator. These shops can also enable CCC’s AI-powered Repair Cost Predictor, which analyzes driver-submitted photos to instantly generate a repair cost range, giving consumers early insight into potential damage before scheduling a formal estimate or filing a claim.
"Human vs AI" and the Future of Insurance: Insurtech
Insurtech Insights USA 2025, North America’s premier gathering of insurance executives and innovators, is set to return to the Javits Center in New York City on June 4–5, 2025, bringing together over 6,000 attendees and 400+ speakers from across the globe. With AI, digital transformation, and industry reinvention at the heart of this year’s agenda, the event offers unparalleled insights into the technologies and strategies reshaping insurance.
The two-day program includes dynamic keynotes, interactive panels, and fireside chats led by senior executives from Munich Re, MetLife, AXA, Zurich, Microsoft, Clearspeed, Chubb, Owl.co, and more. The most anticipated sessions of the year are:
1. Human vs AI: The Future of Insurance Lies in Collaboration
Speakers: Garry Kasparov, Chess Grandmaster & Sean Merat, CEO, Owl.co
Date: June 4 at 9:50 AM | Main Stage
In a thought-provoking keynote, Garry Kasparov, who famously battled and then embraced AI, joins Owl.co CEO Sean Merat to explore how insurers can embrace intelligent collaboration over competition. The session sets the tone for the conference: bold, reflective, and future-focused.AGENDA HIGHLIGHTS
Legal System Abuse/Social Inflation
Nuclear Verdicts Skyrocket: Corporate Lawsuit Awards Surge 116% to $31.3 Billion in 2024 - Risk & Insurance : Risk & Insurance
Marathon Strategies report reveals 52% increase in multi-million dollar awards, even as several states pursue legislative reforms to curb rising liability.
Nuclear verdicts against corporations surged to unprecedented levels in 2024, with 135 lawsuits resulting in awards exceeding $10 million, a 52% increase over 2023, while the total of such verdicts reached a staggering $31.3 billion, up 116% from the previous year, according to Marathon Strategies research.
The dramatic rise in supersized jury awards shows no signs of slowing, according to the annual report. “Thermonuclear verdicts,” those exceeding $100 million, jumped to a record 49 cases in 2024, compared to 27 in 2023. In addition, five verdicts surpassed the $1 billion threshold, more than doubling the two such awards in 2023, the report revealed.
Even the median verdict climbed to $51 million, up from $44 million in 2023 and significantly higher than the $21 million median verdict in 2020.
These enormous awards have spread across the corporate landscape, affecting 55 different industries in 2024, up from 48 in 2023. The beverage sector faced the heaviest financial toll at $8.5 billion in jury awards, followed by entertainment ($4.7 billion), agricultural chemicals ($2.3 billion), construction and engineering ($2 billion), technology hardware ($1.9 billion), and oil and gas ($1.8 billion). Two dozen industries experienced verdicts totaling at least $100 million, Marathon Strategies reported.
The geographic reach of nuclear verdicts expanded substantially in 2024, landing in 34 states (up from 27) and 77 courts (up from 65).