Commentary/Opinion
U.S. P&C Insurance Outlook: Cautious Optimism for 2025-2026 Amid Tariff Threats - Risk & Insurance
The U.S. property & casualty insurance industry faces a cautiously optimistic outlook for 2025-2026, with strong underlying performance tempered by significant risks from tariffs, natural catastrophes, and reserve uncertainties, according to analysis from Swiss Re Institute.
The P&C sector is entering a period of more modest growth after several years of exceptional expansion, the report says. Direct premiums written are forecast to grow by 5% in 2025, decelerating to 4% in 2026, as the industry returns to longer-term averages. This slowdown reflects increased competition in key segments, particularly personal auto, where insurers more than doubled their advertising expenditure to $8.1 billion in 2024 as they compete for market share following profitability improvements, Swiss Re said.
News
Global commercial insurance rates continue decline in Q1 2025 – Marsh report
Global commercial insurance rates dropped by an average of 3% in the first quarter of 2025, marking the third consecutive quarterly decline, according to the Global Insurance Market Index released by Marsh, a business of Marsh McLennan. The latest figures continue a trend that began in early 2021, reversing nearly seven years of rising rates.
The report highlights increased insurer competition as the primary driver behind the downward trend in rates, which declined across all regions and most major product lines. This continues the moderating trend that began in early 2021, representing a shift in market conditions favorable to insurance buyers.
The UK and Pacific regions experienced the most substantial composite rate decreases at 6% and 8% respectively, while US rates fell by a more modest 1%. Many clients have capitalized on the increasingly competitive environment to negotiate improved terms, enhance coverage, and explore alternative risk transfer solutions.
“Driven by increased insurer competition and favorable reinsurance pricing, global commercial insurance trends continued to improve for our clients in the first quarter,” said John Donnelly, president of global placement at Marsh. “We expect the overall trend to continue, and for insurer competition to intensify, barring unforeseen changes in conditions.”
US P&C insurance to see 5% premium growth in 2025 despite $16bn in reserve additions: Swiss Re
After several years of elevated growth and performance, the US property and casualty (P&C) insurance sector is approaching a period of slower expansion and rising uncertainty, reports reinsurance giant Swiss Re.
According to James Finucane, Senior Economist, and Thomas Holzheu, Chief Economist Americas, of the Swiss Re Institute—part of Swiss Re, a global reinsurance provider—the outlook for 2025 reflects a market adjusting to both economic headwinds and the lingering effects of past underwriting decisions.
The analysts project that return on equity (ROE) will remain steady at 10% in both 2025 and 2026, a modest dip from 11% in 2024.
This comes as the benefits of last year’s strong premium growth and declining claims inflation begin to fade. The analysts note that underwriting conditions are likely to become more challenging due to heightened competition and emerging cost pressures from newly imposed tariffs, particularly in personal lines.
The year began with a significant loss event: California wildfires, which the analysts say added about 3 percentage points to the industry’s combined ratio and depleted nearly half of its annual catastrophe budget.
The economists also flag growing uncertainty in liability reserves, underscored by $16 billion in additions during 2024. This development raised loss ratios by 9 percentage points in affected lines and signals ongoing vulnerability to adverse reserve adjustments.
Premium growth is expected to decelerate, but the analysts maintain that it will remain relatively strong—forecasting a 5% rise in 2025 followed by 4% in 2026.
Climate/Resilience/Sustainability
Insights on Earth Observation, Gen AI, climate tech
NASA, Munich Re, The Institutes and others share insights on tech like Earth Observation and Gen AI at ClimateTech Connect 2025.
Climate experts and professionals in the insurance, finance and mortgage industries shared their insights into trending and emerging climate-risk innovations at ClimateTech Connect, held April 15-16, 2025 in Washington D.C.
Data Privacy
Insurance Firm Lemonade Says API Glitch Exposed Some Driver’s License Numbers - SecurityWeek
Insurance firm Lemonade is notifying roughly 190,000 individuals that their driver’s license numbers were likely exposed due to a technical glitch.
Copies of the notification letter that were submitted to regulators in several states show that the incident involved an online application that enables individuals to obtain car insurance quotes and purchase policies.
According to the company, a vulnerability in the car insurance quote flow resulted in the exposure of certain driver’s license numbers for identifiable individuals. The vulnerability has been addressed, Lemonade says.
Between April 2023 and September 2024, the platform transmitted the information unencrypted, which the company says allowed driver’s license numbers to be accessed without authorization.
“We have no evidence to suggest that your driver’s license number has been misused but we are providing this notice as a precaution to inform potentially affected individuals and share some steps you can take to help protect yourself,” the company’s notification letter reads.
The insurer is providing the impacted individuals with 12 months of free credit monitoring and identity protection services.
“Based on the company’s current knowledge of the facts and circumstances related to the incident, the company’s operations were not compromised, nor was Lemonade customer data targeted, and the company has determined that the incident is not material,” Lemonade told the SEC.
AI in Insurance
Nearly Three Quarters of Drivers Avoid Filing Insurance Claims. AI Can Change That, for the Better
The worst part of the experience for many drivers involved in minor accidents or fender-benders isn’t the accident itself: it’s what comes after the accident, including dealing with their insurance company.
For over 70% of drivers, studies show, filing an insurance claim is not even worthwhile – and a quarter of those who did file regretted doing so. The hassle, the arguing with their insurer, and the almost inevitable rise in premium rates after filing a claim drives many clients to just pay out of pocket for repairs, or to forgo a repair altogether if the damage is just cosmetic.
That sort of defeats the purpose of insurance, for drivers – but it’s a problem for insurance companies, as well. While insurers do not have a legal responsibility to do so, they do voluntarily collect data on vehicle safety, making data on accidents important for them, and for regulators. If a certain model is involved in an excessive number of accidents, it could indicate an engineering or design problem that regulators need to know about. But insurers also need to know about accidents in order to protect themselves from fraudulent claims in the future. Too often, drivers fraudulently try to include old damage in claims, putting insurers at risk of covering unqualified damage, and forcing them to spend money and other resources to monitor for such fraud.
MORE
Research
Q1 2025 Personal Lines Trends and Perspectives Report
Where is the insurance industry headed?
Auto insurance profitability has rebounded — while property insurance continues to face challenges. Tap into exclusive insights regarding the latest trends shaping personal lines insurance in 2025.
You’ll discover:
- Auto insurance shopping increased year over year, sparking new strategies for customer acquisition and retention.
- Property insurance remains under pressure as profitability struggles to keep up with rising claims and climate-driven losses.
- Digital marketing and data segmentation are reshaping how insurers connect with customers.
InsurTech/M&A/Finance💰/Collaboration
Admiral Group agrees to sell its U.S. motor business to J.C. Flowers
*Admiral Group plc announced today that it has entered into an agreement to sell its U.S. motor insurance business, including Elephant Insurance Company and Elephant Insurance Services ("Elephant"), to J.C. Flowers & Co. ("J.C. Flowers"), a global private investment firm dedicated to investing in the financial services industry, for an undisclosed cash consideration (before customary adjustments and transaction and related expenses) representing approximately the net asset value of Elephant. The transaction is subject to regulatory approval and is expected to close in Q4 2025.
Headquartered in Richmond, Virginia, Elephant Insurance offers U.S. customers simple and affordable car insurance. The company's tools allow customers to find the best protection for their needs and budget, with tools that are easy to use and understand.
Costantino Moretti, Head of International Insurance, Admiral Group said: "In Elephant, we have built a business with a great foundation, and selling the company to J.C. Flowers is the right decision to ensure its future success. J.C. Flowers and Elephant have a shared ambition for generating growth and value. This partnership will allow the business to continue to deliver the high-quality insurance products and services that US motorists need.
"This is a good outcome not only for Elephant and its employees, but also the Group and our shareholders. This transaction will enable us to focus on the opportunities we see for delivering long-term sustainable growth in our businesses in the UK and Mainland Europe."
Aclaimant Revolutionizes Insurance Data Management with DIPDash, its Innovative Data Ingestion Pipeline and Dashboard
Aclaimant, a leader in next generation risk management solutions, today announced the launch of DIPDash, its patent-pending Data Ingestion Pipeline & Dashboard product.
This specialized multi-stage platform is designed to solve the significant challenges the insurance industry faces in obtaining, creating and maintaining high-quality data sets across all systems of record, most notably with insurance claims.
DIPDash transforms the traditionally manual, error-prone, and time-consuming tasks of data acquisition, mapping, preparation, validation and loading while providing a transparent view into the entire process. DIPDash provides a scalable and efficient solution that consolidates claims and other insurance data, enhances data quality, and significantly improves transparency.
Aclaimant's patent pending DIPDash Data Pipeline and Dashboard revolutionizes insurance data management.
"All stakeholders in the insurance industry face significant challenges in obtaining high-quality data from their partners," stated Kathy Burns, CEO of Aclaimant. "DIPDash is the first product of its kind, purpose built to address the data challenges for brokers, TPAs, carriers and policyholders alike. Using this platform not only enhances data quality for users but also improves data quality with insurance partners. Information is power and we intend to empower our clients with the most robust and accurate data sets in the industry.".
Buckle files for Chapter 7 bankruptcy
Insurance startup Buckle has filed paperwork for Chapter 7 bankruptcy related to Buckle Services, LLC in the District of Delaware. Buckle Services is fully owned by Buckle Corp.
In the filing, Buckle disclosed 50-99 creditors, $0-$50k in assets, and $10M-$50M in liabilities.
Founded in 2017, Buckle publicly disclosed $81 million in equity funding and $35 million in debt. In 2019, the startup launched its rideshare insurance product with a policy that combines personal and commercial coverages. The startup eventually discontinued the coverage and in 2023 it pivoted to a fronting business to serve MGAs. In between, the startup acquired two licensed insurance carriers and one was later sold to General Motors.
Gateway Insurance Company, the carrier still owned by Buckle, provided the following update in a 2024 regulatory filing:
Founded in 2017, Buckle publicly disclosed $81 million in equity funding and $35 million in debt. In 2019, the startup launched its rideshare insurance product with a policy that combines personal and commercial coverages. The startup eventually discontinued the coverage and in 2023 it pivoted to a fronting business to serve MGAs. In between, the startup acquired two licensed insurance carriers and one was later sold to General Motors.
Gateway Insurance Company, the carrier still owned by Buckle, provided the following update in a 2024 regulatory filing:
Fraud
Insurance fraud ranks second for costliest white-collar crimes
FBI: Fraud costs U.S. families $400 to $700 annually in increased premiums to cover the expense.
Insurance fraud remains the second-most costly white-collar crime in the U.S. after tax evasion, according to a recent report by Deloitte.
Property and casualty (P&C) insurers lose an estimated $122 billion annually, the data showed, with fraud-detection technology now estimated to grow from $4 billion in 2023 to $32 billion by 2032 to notch an eightfold increase.
At the same time, the Federal Bureau of Investigation reports that insurance fraud costs an average American family $400 to $700 annually due to increased premiums to cover the expense.
“Continuing to raise premiums to offset fraud losses is likely not a viable strategy for long-term profitability and market share growth,” Deloitte said in the report. “By combining AI-driven anti-fraud technologies with advanced data analytics (depending on the law of each jurisdiction), insurers can enhance their capabilities to detect and prevent fraud. Insurers that pair sophisticated technology with human enablement can detect claims fraud and could potentially save billions of dollars for policyholders.”
Webinars/Podcasts/Interviews
AM Best to Host Webinar on Market Shifts Shaping U.S. Auto Insurance | May 21, 2025, at 2:00 p.m. (EDT_
AM Best will host a complimentary webinar, titled, “The Risks Right Now: Market Shifts Shaping U.S. Auto Insurance,” sponsored by LexisNexis Risk Solutions, on Wednesday, May 21, 2025, at 2:00 p.m. (EDT). Register today.
Multiple long-term trends reached inflection points in 2024. Due to major shifts in retention rates, shopping levels and attorney representation, the future of the U.S. auto insurance industry has never felt more fluid.
Join us to better understand the drivers impacting rate shopping, driving violations and premium growth. Don’t miss this view of current trends paired with insights from industry experts that identify new and shifting sources of risk.
Panelists include:
- Jeffery Batiste, senior vice president & general manager, U.S. Auto and Home, LexisNexis Risk Solutions
- Tanner Sheehan, vice president & general manager, U.S. Claims, LexisNexis Risk Solutions.
Recommended Events
ITC Vegas | October 14-16, 2025
ITC Vegas is the world's largest gathering for those passionate about driving innovation in insurance.
ITC Vegas 2025 is scheduled for October 14–16, 2025, at Mandalay Bay in Las Vegas. This premier event focuses on networking opportunities and educational sessions for industry professionals, aiming to explore solutions shaping the future of insurance. It is recognized as the world's largest gathering for those passionate about driving innovation in the insurance sector.